Canada’s Big Buildout
4,800MW of new big nuclear at Bruce C, 4 new SMRs at Darlington…and more to come?
Canada’s finally going big on nuclear again. It’s been three decades since Darlington 4, the nation’s youngest nuclear reactor, was completed. Since then, we’ve heard a lot of noise about Canada’s effort to foster Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), but not as much about any plans to build big nuclear again.
Until Wednesday, that is.
Energy Minister Todd Smith announced at Bruce that pre-development work is starting on Bruce C, which will one day add up to 4,800MW of generation to Bruce Nuclear Generating Station. Recall that the Bruce site on the edge of Lake Huron already hold the 6,550MW Bruce A and B.
Why is Ontario going big? In short, Canada’s most populous province and industrial center has been growing like gangbusters and, for the first time since 2005, electricity demand is rising. What’s more, that growth is projected to continue through the 2030s, 2040s and beyond, driven by electrification and population growth. The Independent Electricty System Operator (IESO) recommended the province should start doing planning, siting and environmental assessment for long-lead assets like nuclear power right away.
“A large-scale nuclear project requires a lead time of a decade or more,” said Smith, “starting planning now will ensure we have the option ready.”
Smith also confirmed in response to press questions that the plans for new-builds will not affect the plan to roll forward with the possible refurbishment of the 3,114MW Pickering Generation Station.
More CANDUs?
We are unabashed fans of the CANDU (Canadian Deuterium Uranium) reactor here at Decouple Media. So obviously when we heard of the announcement, our first thought was “how many CANDUs would that be?”
The truth is, Smith didn’t announce the KIND of reactors that will be used at Bruce C. He just said it was going to be “large-scale.” Either they haven’t decided yet, or they are keeping the decision under their hat for the time being. As we are early in the planning process, other large reactors such as Westinghouse’s AP1000 could still be in the running.
However, coming off the backs of successful and ongoing CANDU refurbishments, the homegrown technology will have a homegrown advantage: supply chains and personnel that are humming and ready to go, offering a smooth on-ramp to new builds.
“We argue that CANDU is the lowest-risk, highest-benefit of Canada’s large nuclear options,” said the Case for CANDU report by Canadians for Nuclear Energy, “Lowering project risk are decades of construction and maintenance experience, a fully developed supply, chain and trained workforce, proven economics,and ongoing success with new-build-scale refurbishments.”
Big or small, they’ll build it all!
Smith wasn’t done. Two days later, he announced that there will be three additional BWRX-300 units planned at the Darlington Nuclear power plant. Together with the one already being built, that would be a total of four SMRs of 300MW each. The new reactors are expected to be online by 2034.
However the Darlington site, which already holds 4 CANDU reactors for a total of 3,512MW in nameplate generation, is capable of even more, said Decouple Media’s own Dr. Chris Keefer.
“This is a very positive announcement, but Darlington is our most precious nuclear site and this uses just one-quarter of the capacity,” Keefer told insauga.com.
Asked by the press on the question, Smith said that it makes sense to put SMRs on the site, but “we are going to need 18 Gigawatts (in the future) so we’ll have more to say.”
ANGELICA’S TAKE
Just a few short years ago, Canada’s nuclear plans were so focused on SMRs only that they called it the SMR Roadmap. They wisely recognized that Canada, as a Tier-1 nuclear nation, is well-placed to take advantage of future new-build nuclear. That ambition, combined with the proactive and collaborative approach to licensing taken by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, has made the northland nation a world leader in the SMR race.
But they were still thinking too small.
Ultimately, when the IESO report came out showing the stunning shortfall in power the Ontario region needed to kick gas and still accommodate for economic growth and electrification, it was the impetus they needed to realize big nuclear has to be a part of the mix. While the type of big nuclear has not yet been decided, more CANDUs are the logical solution. Half the problem with nuclear energy is the uncertainty. Canada is in the enviable position of having a home-grown technology with uncertainty controlled, even as it is working on the cutting edge of new reactors.
I hope that we can look back to last week’s announcements in years to come and say “that was when the second great Canadian nuclear buildout got started.”
If we do look back at last week’s announcement as when Canada’s second large buildout began, we’ll be able to thank C4NE and Decouple for helping to lead the way. A great service not just to Canada, but for the world. Shine on!!
Adjusting for capacity factor the 4800 MW announcement plus 1200 MW of SMRs are 70% of Germany's solar!